That projection rests on a trend of 13.7 points per year on the Epoch Capabilities Index, with an R squared of 0.95, which the authors call only a proxy metric for replication ability.

The exact words it rests on

The solid line is the least-squares fit over the best models in-class at each date, with a gain of 13.7 ECI per year (R 2 of 0.95). If we take GLM-5.2 as a capabilities floor for replication, the trend line puts a small model at that level by the end of 2026. ECI is a general capability index, which is only a proxy metric for replication ability

What the source said when we opened it, on 14 Oct 2026.

The source

AI models may be capable of self-replicating without access to a datacenter
Anthropic (Frontier Red Team) · 2026-10-12

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Checked

Checked by the notis newsroom on 14 Oct 2026, against the source above.

In the story

Anthropic's Frontier Red Team says small AI models may be months from self-replicating on IoT devices. 14 Oct 2026