Checked fact 42818 Nov 2026Research

The METR paper says the frontier AI time horizon has doubled approximately every seven months since 2019; the regression gives 207 days with a 95% bootstrapped confidence interval of 166 to 240 days (section 3.2).

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frontier AI time horizon has doubled approximately every seven months since 2019 ... finding that time horizon has doubled every 207 days with a 95% bootstrapped confidence interval 166-240 days

What the source said when we opened it, on 8 Nov 2026.

The source

Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks (arXiv 2503.14499v3)
METR

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Checked by the notis newsroom on 8 Nov 2026, against the source above.

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How METR's time horizon rates AI agents by human task length 8 Nov 2026

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“The METR paper says the frontier AI time horizon has doubled approximately every seven months since 2019; the regression gives 207 days with a 95% bootstrapped confidence interval of 166 to 240 days (section 3.2).” ai notis, checked 8 Nov 2026. Source: Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks (arXiv 2503.14499v3) (METR). https://ainotis.com/c/4281

As a reference (APA style)

ai notis. (2026, November 8). The METR paper says the frontier AI time horizon has doubled approximately every seven months since 2019; the regression gives 207 days with a 95% bootstrapped confidence interval of 166 to 240 days (section 3.2) [Checked claim 4281]. ai notis. https://ainotis.com/c/4281

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