Checked fact 42828 Nov 2026Research

METR's page says that for models released between early 2019 and March 2025, an exponential trend is a much better fit to the data than both the linear and hyperbolic trends.

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In our March 2025 paper introducing time horizon, we investigated the quality of linear and hyperbolic fits for models released between early 2019 and March 2025. As Figure 17 from the paper shows, an exponential trend is a much better fit to the data than both the linear and hyperbolic trends.

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Task-completion time horizons of frontier AI models
METR

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Checked by the notis newsroom on 8 Nov 2026, against the source above.

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How METR's time horizon rates AI agents by human task length 8 Nov 2026

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“METR's page says that for models released between early 2019 and March 2025, an exponential trend is a much better fit to the data than both the linear and hyperbolic trends.” ai notis, checked 8 Nov 2026. Source: Task-completion time horizons of frontier AI models (METR). https://ainotis.com/c/4282

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ai notis. (2026, November 8). METR's page says that for models released between early 2019 and March 2025, an exponential trend is a much better fit to the data than both the linear and hyperbolic trends [Checked claim 4282]. ai notis. https://ainotis.com/c/4282

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