Checked fact 42918 Nov 2026Safety and security

METR reports that alternative analysis choices give acceleration estimates between 1.1x and 2.9x, and that it would be surprised by no acceleration or acceleration above 3x.

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The exact words it rests on

Robustness analyses find acceleration rates between 1.1x and 2.9x. We would be surprised if the true evolution of benchmark scores (e.g. as measured by an improved version of AECI) showed no acceleration or acceleration above 3x.

What the source said when we opened it, on 8 Nov 2026.

The source

Independent assessment of AI R&D acceleration at Anthropic
METR · 2026-11-05

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Checked

Checked by the notis newsroom on 8 Nov 2026, against the source above.

In the story

Anthropic's model scores grew about 1.9 times faster since October 2025, METR estimates 8 Nov 2026

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“METR reports that alternative analysis choices give acceleration estimates between 1.1x and 2.9x, and that it would be surprised by no acceleration or acceleration above 3x.” ai notis, checked 8 Nov 2026. Source: Independent assessment of AI R&D acceleration at Anthropic (METR). https://ainotis.com/c/4291

As a reference (APA style)

ai notis. (2026, November 8). METR reports that alternative analysis choices give acceleration estimates between 1.1x and 2.9x, and that it would be surprised by no acceleration or acceleration above 3x [Checked claim 4291]. ai notis. https://ainotis.com/c/4291

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